The mood changes as subtly as the season

By David Devadas

The leaves on the giant chinar trees here are just beginning to turn the bright, dramatic colours of autumn but soothing breezes have already eased the heat of summer. Amid an amazingly fervent round of elections, Kashmiri’s mood is changing as subtly as the season. Everywhere, people are talking about the polling with a wonder that just goes to show how novel and unexpected free and fair elections are to most Kashmiris.

Far more important for the future of South Asia, the process has caused major shifts in the subterranean templates of Kashmiri politics. Even the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, hitherto the monolithic standard-bearer of Kashmir’s secession, is under strain. The People’s Conference, which was founded by the assassinated Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone, is looking for an opportunity to quit. Like many analysts here, they expect those elections to return an unstable mandate and are girding themselves to participate in the next elections, even if these occur as early as next year.

Hurriyat Chairman Abdul Ghani Bhat nodded glumly when I asked him last week whether the People’s Conference was not “straining at the leash”. He took the plea that “aberrations are an exception, never the rule”, and that “we represent the majority”, but did not deny that differences exist. The moment I walked into his office the other day, he expostulated: “We have lost faith in the media, diplomats, NGOs all  - in short, all those who have reported that the elections have been properly conducted so far. Clearly, the Hurriyat is finding it hard to grapple with rural Kashmir’s enthusiastic participation in the process.

Bhat’s colleague in the Hurriyat Executive Committee, Maulana Abbas Ansari, explains that “people are very disillusioned with the National Conference”, but there is no denying the fact that common people across much of the valley have ignored the Hurriyat’s boycott call. Sanaullah Malik, a a senior People’s Conference worker from Kupwara, sees the same phenomenon Ansari does through a different prism. “If the Hurriyat had not called for a boycott, the National Conference candidates would have lost their deposits”.

His party is evidently irked by the Hurriyat’s intransigence. Indeed, Lone’s sons, who run the party now, were remarkably cool when the Hurriyat was in an uproar after their senior colleagues filed nominations as independents a month ago. They explained it publicly as defiance by the concerned leaders but were not averse to being expelled from the Hurriyat. As it turned out, their bold move had the opposite effect. Launching damage containment, Pakistan promptly appointed the People’s Conference nominee, Syed Yusuf Naseem, as the convenor of the Muzaffarabad-based wing of the Hurriyat. The party’s leaders here are not impressed. Privately expressing disgust at the Hurriyat, they point out that only they, the Mirwaiz and the Jamaat-e-Islami among its 23 constituents have a popular base. “Let Professor (as the chairman likes to be called) gather 50 supporters”, says one of them contemptuously.

Indeed, the big question mark in the minds of many is the likely course of Mirwaiz Umar Farooq. His father too was assassinated by militants exactly 12 years before Lone was. Although his approach has hitherto been cautious, he could be inspired by the determination to rise above the spiral of violence that Lone’s sons have displayed since their father was killed on May 21 this year. Over the months before Lone was killed, he and Umar had emerged as what was considered the “moderate” leadership within the Hurriyat. JKLF chief Yasin Malik had been part of their axis since the divide emerged over the last couple of years but had returned to inflexibility after he returned from treatment in the US last winter. Now, People’s Conference leaders say they could ally with Umar after splitting from the Hurriyat but are cynical about whether he will show the courage to move out.

The other group that is watching the poll process with great interest is the assortment of pro-freedom leaders outside the Hurriyat, such as Shabir Shah and Azam Inquilabi. They came close to contesting these polls but backed off when New Delhi did not give in to their demands for Governor’s rule and a reduction of security forces - and more time to gather their courage. One of these leaders also told me that he for one backed off after PTV criticized the nascent “third front” for four days running. The fear of being killed for participating process lurks over them all.

However, particularly if the People’s Conference takes the lead, Shah at least is likely to enter the electoral arena by next time. He is among the many who expect the new house elected this time to be unstable. Indeed, if voters that I have interacted with over the past month are to be believed, there is a massive anti-incumbency sentiment in the Valley. It is quite possible that the National Conference will win less than 30 seats. A coalition of the Congress, Mufti’s party and perhaps some independents could take office but, given the volatility of Kashmiri politics, may not last its full term. It is entirely possible that these elections are only the dress rehearsal for a really historic round, perhaps as early as next year.

(Source: The Tribune)

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